WFP Southern Africa Seasonal Monitor #3 (February 2023)

There was a good start to the season, with normal to above normal rainfall across most countries in October and November, followed by a drier than average period for December and January. February appears to be bringing a shift back towards wetter weather. Overall, the 2022/23 rainfall season has been favourable so far in most of the Southern Africa region.

Although the broad seasonal rainfall pattern remains normal to above normal across the middle of the region, there are areas where dryness has been persistent such as NE Namibia, central and southeast Angola, Tanzania, northern Mozambique and northern areas of Madagascar.

These patterns are supported by analysis of the timing of the onset of the growing season, satellite vegetation and land surface temperature. The drier conditions in December and January may have affected early planted crops or delayed the start of agricultural activities. The consequences of the shift towards wetter weather in February is yet to be seen.

Indications from short range forecasts point to a shift towards wetter weather in the eastern part of the region. Long range rainfall forecasts remain favourable with indications of wetter than average second half of the season, but this does not account for irregularities in its distribution.

In terms of dryness, the areas of southern Angola and northern Namibia, the border areas of Tanzania and northern Mozambique and northeast Madagascar, where there has been a rainfall deficit since the start of the season, continue to be of concern and negative consequences for food security in the harvest season may develop. In addition to dryness, crops in areas that have been flooded in February due to the passage of two Tropical Cyclones and heavy rains in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia may also have negative consequences on crop production.

Source: World Food Programme

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